# First Mobile Game: Genre Shortlist and Recommendation

**Revision:** rev3, 4 Oct 2026. Builds on rev2 (Code's casino correction, accepted as written). Changes in rev3:

- Every figure now carries a source key ([S1] to [S8]). Calls without a source are marked [J], meaning our own judgment.
- New section, **Payback inputs**, sets sourced defaults for the calculator.
- The "~70% of growth" claim is restated as a share of gains, with its basis.
- The merge-2 wording is reconciled.
- The CPI bases are explained ($0.50 sort versus $2 to $3 casual).
- The 35% soft-launch gate is explained against the 30% market target.
- The idle figure is dated (H1 2025).
- Two new sources: AppsFlyer [S7] and GameAnalytics [S8].

Market figures cover 2025 to H1 2026. Revenue figures are IAP only unless noted; ad revenue (IAA) is not in most public subgenre totals, which understates the ad-driven genres this report favors.

---

## Bottom line

Build a **3D "stuck-state" hybridcasual puzzle**: a sort, screw or block-jam style game with premium 3D presentation, monetized by ads plus light IAP (boosters, no-ads, lives). Three reasons:

1. **It is where the growth is.** Puzzle was the only big genre to grow in H1 2026, up ~20% to $8.07B [S1]. That is roughly $1.3B of new revenue (derived from those two figures), about 70% of all the revenue gained by genres that grew [S1]. The market still fell 2% overall because Strategy, RPG and Casino lost more than Puzzle gained [S1]. Inside puzzle, the 2025 growth came from merge-2 (about 60% of the increase) and the new Sort, Screw and Block niches (about 40%) [S4]. Each of those niches doubled or better [S2][S4]. Merge-2 is real growth, but it is IAP heavy and content heavy, so it is not a first title (see the table). The niches are.
2. **It is buildable by a small team.** The core loop is one mechanic plus a level generator. No narrative, no multiplayer, no server-authoritative economy. 3D presentation is exactly where "good graphics" buys differentiation cheaply: one polished scene, good materials, satisfying physics and juice [J].
3. **The unit economics can close on install ads.** Sort puzzles buy installs at around $0.50 blended [S4]. Ads start earning in the first session, and IAP layers on top. At the sourced defaults below, ads alone pay back a $0.50 install on day 75 [S4][S7]. That is the shortest payback path available to a first title.

What to avoid: classic match-3, merge-2 as a first title, 4X strategy, RPG, casino, shooters. Reasons in the table.

---

## How to read "easy" [J]

| Build tier | Team | Time to soft launch | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Easy** | 2 to 4 | 2 to 4 months | One core mechanic, procedural or hand-tuned levels, offline, no live content treadmill |
| **Medium** | 5 to 10 | 6 to 12 months | Meta layer (decorate, build, collect), meaningful content pipeline, LiveOps events |
| **Hard** | 15+ | 18+ months | Online systems, deep economy, large art and content teams, tens of millions in UA to compete |

---

## Category table

Competition: **Low / Med / High / Brutal** reflects revenue concentration and the success rate of new launches. Build tier, competition rating and first-title fit are [J] throughout. Revenue is 2025 global IAP unless noted. Where two sources differ, the table gives the range.

| Category | Build | 2025 revenue (IAP) | Trend | Competition | Monetization | First-title fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Sort puzzle** (liquid, ball, goods sort) | Easy | ~$280M [S4] ($279M [S2]) | +176% YoY [S4] | Med. Healthy middle class: 12+ games at $5M to $15M/yr. Leader (Magic Sort) ~18% share [S4] | Hybrid, ads first | **Strong** |
| **Screw / pin puzzle** | Easy | ~$177M [S2] to $206M [S4] | ~2x YoY [S2][S4] | High. Leader (Screwdom) ~45% share [S4] | Hybrid, friction-driven IAP [S4] | **Strong** |
| **Block puzzle** (block jam, color block) | Easy | ~$183M [S4] to $213M [S2] | 10x+ YoY [S2] | High at the top. Color Block Jam ~75% of IAP [S4]; Block Blast earns an estimated $600K to $1M/day from ads alone [S6] | Ads first, IAP layered | **Strong but crowded** |
| **Tile match / Match-3D** | Easy to Med | not broken out | Mature [J] | High [J] | Hybrid | Good if differentiated visually |
| **Solitaire / Mahjong** | Easy | not broken out recently | Stable [J] | High, older audience, ad-heavy [J] | Ads + IAP | Moderate. Low creative headroom for graphics |
| **Word games** | Easy | not broken out | Declining [S4] | High | Ads | Weak. Legacy subgenre losing installs [S4] |
| **Idle / clicker / tycoon** | Easy to Med | not broken out | +40% YoY in H1 2025 [S3] | Med [J] | Ads (rewarded) + IAP | Good second option; strong 3D showcase |
| **Hypercasual** (runner, one-tap) | Very easy | ad-only | Lost the most downloads in H1 2026 [S1] | Brutal on volume [J] | Ads only | Weak. Thin margins, short lifespans |
| **Merge-2** (Gossip Harbor style) | Medium | ~$1.4B [S2] | +80% YoY [S2] | High. Leader ~33% share [S2] | IAP heavy | Not first. Huge art and narrative content load |
| **Farming sim** | Medium | ~$955M [S2] | -2% [S2] | High. Township ~42% [S2] | IAP | No |
| **Time management** | Medium | ~$135M [S2] | -12% [S2] | Med | IAP | No. Shrinking |
| **Life sim** | Medium | ~$135M [S2] | flat (+1.4%) [S2] | Med | IAP | No |
| **Match-3** (Royal Match style) | Hard in practice | ~$4.8B [S2] | flat [S2] | **Brutal.** Dream Games holds ~30%; only 4 of 367 new launches passed $100K/month [S2] | IAP | **Avoid** |
| **Slots** (casino genre ~$6.9B, -7.6% [S2]) | Medium build, hard business | ~$2.7B [S2] | -14% [S2] | Brutal, D2C shift [S1], regulatory exposure [J] | IAP | **Avoid** |
| **Strategy (4X)** | Hard | ~$9.3B (H1 2026) [S1] | -5% [S1] | Brutal | IAP | **Avoid** |
| **RPG** | Hard | ~$6.1B (H1 2026) [S1] | Declining [S1] | Brutal | IAP gacha | **Avoid** |
| **Shooter** (CoD Mobile tier) | Hard | large | n/a | Brutal [J] | IAP | **Avoid** |

**Context numbers.**

- **Market:** global mobile game IAP was ~$40B in H1 2026, down 2% YoY, with downloads down ~12% [S1]. Puzzle at $8.07B (+20%) is closing on Strategy at $9.27B (down ~5%) [S1].
- **Casino as a genre:** ~$6.9B in 2025 (-7.6%), made up of slots ~$2.7B (-14%), coin looters ~$2.4B (-3%) and casino card games ~$784M (-3%) [S2].

Big money is in the hard categories; the growth is in the easy ones.

---

## Install ad economics (what has to be true for positive ROI)

**CPI benchmarks (2026)** [S5]:

| Genre | iOS | Android |
|---|---|---|
| Hypercasual | $1.50 to $2.50 | ~$0.40 |
| Casual / Puzzle | ~$3.00 | ~$2.00 |
| Simulation | ~$3.75 | ~$2.50 |
| Midcore | ~$4.50 | ~$3.25 |
| Strategy | ~$5.50 | ~$4.00 |
| Hardcore / RPG | ~$6.00 | ~$4.50 |

**By region** (all genres) [S5]: North America ~$1.68 blended, Europe ~$0.53, LATAM ~$0.14. Global blended ~$0.56, up 30% YoY. CPIs are rising everywhere, which favors games that monetize from day one.

**Why $0.50 and $2 to $3 are not in conflict.**

- **$0.50 sort:** Naavik's ~$0.50 for sort puzzles is a blended global figure [S4]. It sits next to FoxData's own all-genre global blend of $0.56 [S5].
- **$2 to $3 casual:** FoxData does not state the country mix behind its per-platform genre figures. Read against its $0.56 global blend, they behave like Tier 1 weighted figures [J].
- **How to use them:** treat $0.50 as what a globally bought sort install costs, and $2 to $3 as the Tier 1 reference. Never pair a global CPI with Tier 1 revenue, or the reverse.

**Retention benchmarks.**

| Benchmark | D1 | D7 | D30 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All mobile games, median | ~23% | ~4% | under 1% | [S8] |
| All mobile games, top 25% | ~30% | 6 to 7% | 1.6 to 1.8% | [S8] |
| All mobile games, top 10% | ~40% | 11 to 12% | n/a | [S8] |
| Global average, games | ~27% | n/a | n/a | [S5] |
| Competitive target | 30%+ | 15 to 18% | n/a | [S5] |
| Hybridcasual, typical | n/a | ~20% | ~10% | Gamigion hybridcasual overview, Q1 2025 |
| Sort puzzles | n/a | n/a | ~8% | [S4] |
| Screw (Screwdom) | n/a | n/a | ~17% | [S4] |
| Block (outside leaders) | n/a | n/a | ~4% | [S4] |
| Block Blast, the ceiling | 51% | 32% | 21% | [S6] |

**Why our soft-launch gate is D1 35%, above the 30% target.**

- **30%** is the market's "competitive positioning" line [S5]. It equals the top quartile of all games [S8].
- **35%** is our own gate [J]. It sits between the top quartile (~30%) and the top decile (~40%) [S8], because we only gate before spending real money on paid installs.
- **D7 15%** matches the low end of the competitive target [S5] and sits below typical hybridcasual (~20%).

**Read the retention table honestly.** The niche figures are for games that made it. Across all launches, the median D30 is under 1% [S8]. The payback defaults below assume we hit sort-niche retention. The soft-launch gate is what tests whether we do.

**Why the hybridcasual puzzle wins the ROI test** [J]:

- **Low CPI pool.** Casual puzzle traffic is cheap in Android and Tier 2/3 geos, so you can buy enough installs to learn without large spend.
- **Day-zero revenue.** Interstitials and rewarded video start paying in the first session. IAP-only genres need weeks to recover CPI.
- **Testable before building.** Run CPI tests on ad creatives (video of the mechanic) before writing the full game. If the creative cannot get a cheap install, the game will not either.
- **Small surface to tune.** One mechanic means difficulty curve, ad placement and booster pricing are the main levers. Fast iteration loops.

---

## Payback inputs

The page calculator models retention as a power curve r(t) = a · t^(−b) through D1 and D30, with day 0 at 100%. Lifetime value is LTV(t) = ARPDAU × Σ r(d) for d = 0 to t. These are its defaults; each one is sourced or derived.

| Input | Default | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| CPI | $0.50 | Sort puzzle, blended global [S4] |
| D1 | 35% | Our soft-launch gate [J]; between top quartile and top decile [S8] |
| D7 | 15% | Our soft-launch gate [J]; low end of competitive target [S5]. The fitted curve gives 15.0%, so the three points agree |
| D30 | 8% | Sort puzzle D30 [S4] |
| Ad revenue per DAU | $0.065/day | **Derived:** AppsFlyer global D90 ad ARPU for casual games is $0.55 per install [S7]. Divided by the 8.49 player-days the default curve yields through day 90 |
| IAP revenue per DAU | $0.00/day | **Conservative default:** ads only. The same derivation from AppsFlyer's casual D90 IAP ARPU of $1.34 [S7] gives $0.158/day. That is a ceiling reference, not a target, because the casual average includes IAP-heavy match-3 and merge |

**What the defaults produce.** All figures come from the calculator model. Revenue cells are LTV at day 90 / day 365, per install.

| CPI | Ads only ($0.065) | Ads + casual-average IAP ($0.223) |
|---|---|---|
| $0.50, sort blended | payback **day 75** · $0.55 / $1.17 | payback **day 6** · $1.89 / $4.02 |
| $2.00, casual Android | not inside 365 days · $0.55 / $1.17 | payback **day 100** · $1.89 / $4.02 |
| $3.00, casual iOS | not inside 365 days · $0.55 / $1.17 | payback **day 214** · $1.89 / $4.02 |

**The reading:**

- At the sort-puzzle CPI, ads alone pay back inside 90 days.
- At Tier 1 casual CPIs, the game only pays back with real IAP.
- The other lever is retention. At Block Blast's retention (51 / 32 / 21) and its own implied ad revenue per player [S6], ads alone pay a $0.50 install back in 22 to 47 days. That ad figure is $600K to $1M a day over ~15M DAU, so $0.04 to $0.067 per DAU (derived).

---

## Top recommendations, ranked

### 1. 3D screw or pin physics puzzle with a fresh theme
- **Why:** Strongest D30 retention of the new niches (~17% for the leader) [S4], so LTV holds up. Physics plus 3D camera rotation is a natural place for premium visuals and tactile satisfaction [J]. Market roughly doubled in 2025 [S2][S4].
- **Risk:** Leader holds ~45% [S4]. Differentiate on presentation and theme (materials, destruction, a setting with personality), not mechanic.
- **Build:** 3 to 4 months to soft launch, 3 people (gameplay engineer, 3D artist, designer/UA) [J].

### 2. Sort puzzle with a premium 3D presentation
- **Why:** Least concentrated of the three niches. A dozen titles earn $5M to $15M a year [S4], which proves a mid-tier hit is reachable without dethroning the leader. CPI around $0.50 [S4].
- **Risk:** Lowest-effort genre means the most clones. Visual quality and level design are the moat [J].
- **Build:** 2 to 3 months, 2 to 3 people [J].

### 3. Block jam / color block puzzle
- **Why:** Biggest proven ceiling: Block Blast at an estimated $600K to $1M/day in ads, ~15M DAU [S6]. Fastest growth curve [S2].
- **Risk:** Most crowded at the top, and Color Block Jam owns most of the IAP [S4]. Pursue only with a distinct twist.
- **Build:** 2 to 3 months, 2 to 3 people [J].

### Honorable mention: 3D idle tycoon
A strong visual showcase, and growing (+40% YoY in H1 2025 [S3]), with rewarded ads as the core monetization. It has a longer tuning tail on the economy than a puzzle, which is why it ranks fourth [J].

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## Suggested path [J]

1. **Creative test first (2 to 3 weeks).** Make 3 to 5 short ad videos per candidate concept (screw, sort, block) and run small CPI tests on Meta and AppLovin in a low-cost geo. Pick the concept with the best IPM and CPI.
2. **Prototype the winner (6 to 8 weeks).** 50 levels, ads integrated, analytics (D1/D7, ad impressions per DAU, level funnel).
3. **Soft launch in a low-CPI geo.** Gate on D1 above 35% and D7 above 15% before spending in the US.
4. **Scale only when the ROAS curve projects payback inside ~90 days.** Put soft-launch retention and revenue per DAU into the calculator in place of the defaults.

---

## Sources

- **[S1]** [Sensor Tower: The Gaming Market in H1'26 (via GameDev Reports)](https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/sensor-tower-the-gaming-market-in). H1 2026.
- **[S2]** [AppMagic Casual Games Report 2025: Summary (Mobidictum)](https://mobidictum.com/appmagic-casual-games-report-2025-summary/). Full year 2025.
- **[S3]** [AppMagic Casual Games Report H1 2025 (Gamigion)](https://www.gamigion.com/3-genres-generating-80-of-revenue/). H1 2025.
- **[S4]** [Naavik: How Niche Subgenres are Reshaping the Mobile Puzzle Market](https://naavik.co/digest/how-niche-subgenres-are-reshaping-the-mobile-puzzle-market/). 2025.
- **[S5]** [FoxData: 2026 Mobile Game UA Cost Benchmarks](https://foxdata.com/en/blogs/2026-mobile-game-user-acquisition-cost-benchmarks-how-much-should-you-spend/). 2026.
- **[S6]** [Gamigion: Block Blast, the Largest IAA Revenue Game in the World?](https://www.gamigion.com/block-blast-the-largest-iaa-revenue-game-in-the-world/). Estimates; undated snapshot.
- **[S7]** [AppsFlyer: App Monetization in 2026 (via GameDev Reports)](https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/appsflyer-app-monetization-in-2026). Global, Jan 2025 to Mar 2026. Primary: [AppsFlyer State of App Monetization 2026](https://www.appsflyer.com/resources/reports/app-marketing-monetization-report/).
- **[S8]** [GameAnalytics: Mobile and PC Game Benchmarks in 2026 (via GameDev Reports)](https://gamedevreports.substack.com/p/gameanalytics-mobile-and-pc-game). 2025 data, all genres combined.
- Hybridcasual D7 ~20% / D30 ~10%: [Gamigion: 2025 Hybridcasual Market Overview](https://www.gamigion.com/2025-hybridcasual-market-overview-with-real-data/). Q1 2025. Cited once, so no key.